Oil is up by a significantly large amount today. Let's look at what typically happens after such a surge (tested since 2002):
This study is showing short-term weakness statistically, with the most bearish outlook in the next 2 weeks (10 trading days). However, the price of oil has been down large over the past 2 months. Let us see if factoring that in has any significant relevance:
You can see it definitely does not change it for the better! This study checks for 5% or more up days in oil, when the overall trend is significantly down. This shows a heavy downside pressure in the next 2 weeks. Albeit, most of these occurrences were in the decline of 2008, so you must take that into consideration.
Hope this helps!
Julian
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